Eskom has tried several tactics to force big electricity users to reduce demand, in a last-ditch attempt to minimize the need for load shedding. Some industries have had an understanding for some time that they would be called upon to partially shut down their operations; more recently the mines were forced to drastically scale back; and the latest strategy - a step too far, in the ANC's view - has been to refuse to issue permits for large new developments for a few months. Without the permits, the developments can't proceed.
The ANC is outraged, no doubt, because they see this as applying the brakes to economic growth. The government may be right - but only because it hasn't bothered to develop a strategy to encourage developers who could (with a little nudge) make do with reduced dependence on the national electricity grid.
I find it curious that the backlash from government has been more vociferous in the case of the permit delay tactic than in the case of shutting down mine operations. Given time and carefully applied political pressure, the mines could probably find alternative power sources to supplement their main supply, but in the short term there is little they can do but comply with restrictions, and this clearly has an economic impact. New developments, on the other hand, could be configured to have greater flexibility in their mix of power supplies from the start. Government and Eskom should be working together with developers to find ways to encourage a new wave of thinking - particularly with new developments. In industries where the market calls for it, this is already being done. The planned expansion of the Cape Town International Convention Centre is a good example.
Some would argue that developments with large power needs can't meet their requirements with renewable energy. While this may be true, Eskom is in fact trying to encourage suppliers of cogeneration and renewable sources on a scale that could meet all or part of the power needs of reasonably large developments. I have no doubt that some energy hogs could adopt a mix of power sources and improved energy efficiency, combined with strategies to reduce demand during Eskom's peak periods; they just haven't had any incentive to do so. And Eskom's key short-term concern is the peak, not the average demand.
Nevertheless, the question needs to be asked: is it the really big developments that we should be most worried about? While some government agencies, such as the Coega Development Corporation, are doing their utmost to attract the big guns, the strongest focus of national economic development policy is on supporting small and medium-size businesses. In provinces like the Western Cape, niches such as the creative industries are being targeted for support. Small businesses create the most jobs for the least cost, and they happen to present the greatest opportunity to slow the growth in demand for fossil-fueled electricity.
Meanwhile, there are a few developers who just get on with the job without any help from above. Fritz van Graan of developer Inframax was told by Johannesburg City Power that they could not supply the power required for a residential development at 1 Athole in Craighall. So Inframax isolated the hot water system so that it could be solar powered, and is likely to make gas an option for ovens and hobs. Simple. [Source: Saturday Argus, 8 March 2008 - subscription required.]
The development at 1 Athole goes a step further in improving the sustainability performance of the metropole. Not only will it have reduced electricity demand compared with standard housing, it is also an infill development close to the Johannesburg CBD, so it doesn't contribute to urban sprawl.
If every developer thought like van Graan, we could all be breathing easier.
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