South Africa helps save Bali declaration

It's over, and Bali negotiators are limping home after a gruelling two weeks. But they nearly didn't reach closure. In the early hours of Saturday, US representative Paula Dobriansky again blamed developing countries for not showing commitment to targets for themselves. This has been an issue for the US since the original Kyoto Protocol was agreed, and was the reason Washington refused to sign on in 2001; and it has been a sticking point throughout the Bali conference.

The EU was pushing hard to have developed countries adopt emissions targets in line with the IPCC summary report issued earlier this year, but eventually backed down in the face of objections from the US, Canada and Japan, who insisted that developing countries needed to show stronger commitment. In the final hours of the conference, India had requested a change in the wording of the final declaration that would place greater emphasis on the need for sustainable development in developing countries, and for technology transfer to assist developing countries to migrate towards lower emissions. The US rejected India's change.

Global Deal reports that the eleventh-hour obstruction by the US was met by strong opposition:

Japan speaks next, giving the United States some kind of fuzzy support. But South Africa issues a ferocious and articulate denunciation of the American position. Developing countries have gone much further than they needed to. It's the United States that has failed to take on strong commitments.

According to Wired, South Africa was followed by the Papua New Guinea delegate:

"We seek your leadership," Kevin Conrad told the Americans. "But if for some reason you are not willing to lead, leave it to the rest of us. Please get out of the way."

After a bleak few moments, the US backed down and expressed a desire for a shared vision and a Bali roadmap. According to Global Deal, Dobriansky says "In a spirit of co-operation and responding directly to the words of South Africa, she is prepared to withdraw her objections and go with the consensus position." South Africa welcomed this new US position, and "the delegate 'interprets' the text that applies to developing countries and shows that it can be interpreted as meeting the needs of the poorest people."

A few minutes later, agreement was reached on a Bali declaration, but it was clear that many issues have been left for the negotiations that will continue from here. Bangladesh expressed a view that seems to be felt by a number of the poorest developing countries: that treating the G77 countries (the negotiating block of 155 developing countries) as equals unfairly discriminates against the poorer ones.

If this emerges as a significant split, it may make things tougher for South Africa, as one of the stronger G77 countries with high levels of carbon emissions. I suggested on Friday that targets should recognise historic advantage gained through carbon-intensive industrialisation. This approach benefits South Africa in relation to the developed world, but places a greater burden on South Africa in comparison to poorer countries.

The hard work is only just beginning.

[Update on 19 December: Here is the text of the Bali Declaration signed by 200 scientists on 6 December. Try as I might, I can't find the text of the final agreement reached on 15 December. Here is the unedited Bali Action Plan (the five-page document that all the fuss was about). Here is the Conference President's closing statement.]