renewables are closer than you think

I've been learning a thing or two from the current debate on clean coal vs. renewables and efficiency over at Grist. I haven't changed my view that we'll have to live with coal for a considerable time to come, but David Roberts gives me some hope that at least the pace of construction of new coal power plants may slow down. If you're interested, have a look at his full argument (spelled out over several posts, and apparently his debate with Jeremy Carl is not yet over). He presents several reasons why coal (clean or dirty) is a poor choice for China and India - the two countries he sees as presenting the biggest challenge to efforts at reducing carbon emissions.

What interests me in this debate is the assertion that a strategy of investing in renewables and efficiency is financially worthwhile right now even though R&E is not yet cost-competitive with coal, and that China and India should therefore switch strategies now rather than later. His point is that the cost of coal will continue to rise (transport and other input costs will increase) while the cost of renewables will continue to fall. Sooner or later their paths will cross, but electricity suppliers won't suddenly jump from coal to renewables at that point: they will continue to operate the coal plants at elevated costs rather than abandon the fixed investment.

Added to the equation is the direction America seems to be headed, which is to stop importing carbon-intensive products, while the rest of the world is busy fine-tuning a carbon strategy. Soon, many exporting economies running on coal will either have to switch to clean coal or abandon coal altogether. Clean coal implies carbon sequestration, and that is an unproven strategy. So switch to R&E now, the argument goes, to keep markets open and reduce long-term costs.

I have also read elsewhere that some renewable energy sources are tantalizingly close to coal (and possibly cheaper) in cost per kilowatt. Articles appear regularly on some or other technology breakthrough, and there is no shortage of pilot projects testing new ideas around the globe.

Which brings me, in a roundabout way, to South Africa. Years of research at what is now the University of Johannesburg have paid off with the development of thin-film solar panels that are said to be cost competitive with coal. But, for reasons that have not been clearly explained in the press, the first production facility will be in Germany.

Something is not right with this picture.

Many national governments go out of their way to attract investment that fits their profiles of industries that they would like to host, because they create jobs or are synergistic with other industries or simply boost their international image. The South African government, through the Coega Development Corporation, has been courting Alcan to locate an aluminium smelter - an extremely energy-intensive operation - in South Africa. Instead of increasing the country's dependence on centralised energy supply (of which there is a significant shortage in the southern African region), South Africa could use its home-grown solar technology to harness the sun (of which there is plenty) and develop its skills and experience to become a world leader in renewable technologies. This doesn't happen by accident; it takes a concerted effort by government to create an enabling environment.

It's all happening up north - have a look at the massive solar investment being considered along the Mediterranean desert shores of northern Africa and the Middle East to serve EU member nations. [via urban sprout] Hello? Where are the visionaries of the south?

Comments

[Saul Wall]

I feel that African nations should pursue any energy option they feel are necessary to achieve electrification and economic growth since this contributes not just to prosperity and health but environmental benefit by reducing the impact on wildlife through urbanization and productivity gains in agriculture which can reduce cropland pressure. I am hopeful about a number of alternative energy technologies but it should be the West that goes through the heavy lifting of investment in research and getting these technologies to the point that African nations will want to adopt them due to self interest rather than having pressure on them to "develop sustainably". Maybe that point is near and if some of these power sources can create new industries and jobs in Africa while assisting in electrification that is great but the focus must be on rapid development of power capacity.

[Juliana]

Indeed. Its rather sad to have the sahara serve europe than Africa, but unless Africans (me included :) stand up and do stuff on our own...we shouldnt complain.

production in Germany? They get the jobs from SA's R&D? that is definitely not cool.