Although the Reason Foundation is a bit too strong on the side of free markets for my taste, I tend to agree with their director of urban and land use policy that mass transit is not the key to a sustainable approach to urban transportation. Samuel Staley argues:
Is there a future for mass transit? I think so, but it will take outside the box thinking on the part of transit managers and policymakers. Transit lost its way more than four decades ago when it largely ignored the needs and desires of a wealthier and more mobile middle class. The key is to recapture that market by expanding niche services that compete on the things that matter most to the broad base of travelers--fast, reliable, dependable service.
He includes bus rapid transit (BRT) systems in his definition of niche services, but I believe that even BRT won't replace private transport if it is planned as a road-based version of rail services; which it is, in many cases. I am not suggesting that cars are the answer - on the contrary, I think we need to pay more creative attention to how the various transport elements fit together.
São Paulo, Curitiba and Bogotá all have BRT systems that are promoted as models for other cities to emulate, but their success is not a product of the physical infrastructure alone. They have a strong mix of systems, with supporting services. São Paulo has a particularly complex bus system to meet the needs of travellers, 70% of whom do not have access to a car. Despite this, use of public transportation in the city has been declining for decades. To turn this trend around, planners are updating a broader urban development plan that is linked to the transportation plan. Whether this will be enough to ensure that the mass transit system meets the needs of the city's 18 million residents remains to be seen.
Cars are the mode of choice because they offer the ultimate in flexibility. If we want to reduce automobile dependency, we need to replicate that flexibility. Not an impossible challenge, but we'll have to get more creative than relying on one-size-fits-all BRT to provide broad-based mobility.