Worldchanging has written about the concept of leapfrogging, where countries skip stages in technological development if they are late to enter the development process of a particular technology. This happens, for example, when regions don't have many fixed-line telephones but skip ahead to cellular phones. And it can happen with energy.
Richard Heinberg proposes an oil depletion protocol that encourages both producers and users of oil to gradually wean themselves off oil - and thus avoid the shock of having to adapt quickly later - by agreeing to reduce oil production and consumption at a rate that is tied to the depletion rate of remaining supplies. As quoted in Worldchanging, Heinberg writes:
Poor importing countries may object that by using less petroleum they will have to forego conventional economic development. However, further development that is based on the use of petroleum will merely create structural dependency on a depleting resource. Without the Protocol, these nations will be financially bled by high and volatile prices. With the Protocol in place and with prices stabilized, these nations will be able to afford to import the oil they absolutely need; meanwhile they will have every incentive to develop their economies in a way that is not petroleum-dependent.
This is indeed an appealing concept. Where I disagree with the Worldchanging analysis is in their contention that the "self-evident pathway to growth" is an incentive for leapfrogging in energy technologies, allowing developing countries to move straight from relatively low per-capita carbon output to clean technologies. The theory is that they can skip the stage of heavy dependence on coal or oil.
The problem is that leapfrogging only works where there is no installed base of current technology. In South Africa, China and other potential leapfrog economies, there are extensive interests invested in coal, and the investment is growing rapidly. Not only as a direct fuel for power stations, but also through conversion of coal to synfuels (a technology that South Africa exports). Coal, like oil, is a limited resource that will inevitably reach a peak in production, but this doesn't stop countries from increasing their dependence on this cheap energy source.
Jeremy Wakeford writes in today's Cape Times that South Africa is well positioned, through its seat at the UN, to push for the oil depletion protocol. Nice idea, but reducing short-term oil price volatility and geopolitical tensions are not enough to encourage a move away from carbon-intensive technologies. We need a broader strategy that recognises the link between oil and other fuels. Synfuels and biofuels reduce dependence on imported oil, but they prolong dependence on technologies that use oil (notably vehicles with internal combustion engines) and do nothing to reduce carbon emissions.
