In an article in this morning's Cape Times, Jeremy Wakeford of UCT's School of Economics points out some of the shortcomings of South Africa's biofuels strategy:
- threats to food security are not only based on diverting agricultural land from other uses to maize production, but also on the fact that maize prices will go up as oil prices go up (oil being an input to maize production) and as demand grows for maize exports
- the energy contained in ethanol from maize is only slightly higher than the energy required to produce the ethanol, so there is no net benefit
- as the cost of producing ethanol goes up, the subsidies for production will need to be maintained (Ethanol Africa has already asked for signficant subsidies from government)
- the benefit of reduced emissions is marginal, given that only a small proportion of fuels will contain ethanol
A quote from Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute:
competition for grain between the world's 800 million motorists who want to maintain their mobility and its two billion poorest people who are simply trying to stay alive is emerging as an epic issue.
Agriculture may face declining production anyway because of climate change, so Wakeford suggests that the biofuels strategy needs to be tied to an agricultural strategy that ensures a sustainable approach. He also suggests that biodiesel is a better bet than ethanol, as it can be produced from a wider variety of feedstocks, including waste vegetable oil, non-food crops requiring less water and fossil fuel inputs, and algae. Biodiesel also serves industries other than transport, and thus has wider applications.
Wakeford's full proposal to the biofuels committee investigating a strategy for South Africa.
Update on 5 April 2007: researchers at the University of Rochester are looking at ways to improve the production of ethanol from cellulose waste materials rather than the crop itself.
Update on 8 April 2007: Confirming the notes above, The Economist reports that while ethanol from maize is indeed a zero sum energy game, other sources are somewhat better. Ethanol from sugar cane (as used in Brazil) produces more energy, and cellulosic ethanol (from wood, grasses, shrubs and agricultural wastes) could be even more energy-efficient. Cellulosic ethanol also has greater potential for production without impinging on food production -- but does need more work to bring down production costs.
